Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is another development in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any closer to a resolution.
Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.
The next day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.